The downstream effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine by
themselves ensure the war's place on the list of most consequential events in
the business travel industry of the past 25 years. For one, the war helped send
oil and gas prices soaring and exacerbated pricing inflation, in part spurring
airfares and hotel rates quickly higher. But those effects were hardly the
extent of the effect of Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade
in February 2022.
Just as it drew the condemnation of much of the
international community, the business travel community reacted quickly to the
invasion to ostracize Russia to an extent without precedent in recent decades. Suppliers
from nearly every industry sector curtailed or ended their operations within
Russia and in some cases forbade Russians from using their services.
Countries throughout the world denied the use of their
airspace to Russian state carrier Aeroflot, while ARC suspended the carrier
from its settlement system and global distribution systems removed the
carrier's content from agency-facing booking systems. Hotel chains not only
removed their branding from existing properties in Russia but also paused all
development there. Mastercard, Visa and American Express all suspended
operations in Russia.
In retaliation, Russia banned flights from countries that
had levied sanctions against it from its own airspace, forcing some carriers to
reroute or even cancel some long-haul service.
The next steps in the situation aren't entirely clear and
are dependent in large part on the decisions of the man who started the crisis:
Putin. There's been little if any talk of any industry supplier easing its
stance on withholding service in Russia, and with the sheer volume of U.S. and
European businesses withdrawing from the country and Ukrainian resistance
proving more than effective, there is little reason for a change in course. Any
hopes Russia had for a quick victory over Ukraine have melted into, at best,
stasis.
It seems that if and when Russia returns to the
international business travel community, it will occur only after a cessation
of armed conflict with Ukraine, whether that's due to withdrawal, a negotiated
settlement or what seems to be an unlikely victory. Unlike the decision to
start the war, though, the decision to end it won't be entirely Putin's.