Escalating geopolitical tensions have created a charged environment for business travelers, even in regions that traditionally have been considered stable. International commerce, deals and development must continue, but corporations sending employees around the globe should be aware of how regional dynamics may affect them and should take practical precautions.
Europe
Political divisions, insurgent parties and populist policies were evident throughout Europe in the first half of 2018, culminating with Western Europe’s first populist government in Italy. Conflicts between Italy and the European Union are likely, owing to the commitment of the Five Star Movement and League political parties to a hard-line stance on immigration amid EU asylum reforms. Populist policies are also proving a challenge in both the U.K. and Germany. In the U.K., the conservative government’s Brexit negotiations seem unable to avoid roadblock after roadblock amid party infighting, while support for Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union continues to shrink in the face of Germany’s own anti-immigrant populism. When traveling for business, especially between the U.K. and the continent, it’s best to keep a low profile and avoid saying anything too controversial. Protests and riots for and against European populism are becoming more common, and travelers would do well to avoid large gatherings where things may get violent.
Americas
Populist movements also have dominated the political scene across the Americas, and political risks are clearly present in Latin America ahead of important elections in the latter half of 2018, particularly in Brazil. Significant antigovernment protests in Nicaragua and Venezuela have led to deteriorations in both the security environment and political scene. This could increase the presence of paramilitary and criminal groups, leading to even more lawlessness in these countries. Travelers should stay alert and aware of their surroundings when traveling to Central or South America. These challenges are compounded by the incoming 2018 hurricane season, which will put residents and travelers at risk throughout the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic coast of the U.S.
Middle East & North Africa
The main driver of risk in the Middle East has been the geopolitical rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran continues to wage a proxy war by funding Houthi rebels in their fight against Saudi-backed Yemeni forces. Unrest in Iran also has been stoked by protests over economic policies, which have been exacerbated by the U.S. withdrawal from the “Iran deal.” If the U.S. follows through on proposed sanctions, travelers may bear the brunt of anti-Western sentiment. The region also is experiencing severe unrest in the wake of the U.S.’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, eschewing decades of political dogma. Protests continue to escalate into rioting and gunfire. Travelers in the region should avoid public gatherings, especially near the West Bank.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Entrenched leadership continues to pose a challenge across Africa. The continent is home to some of the world’s longest-serving heads of state, and recent attempts to extend their tenure have met with increasingly violent resistance, notably the de facto coup against Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. Instability throughout Central and Eastern Africa is likely, though successful elections during the next 12 months could diffuse tension and calm the political landscape. The presence of armed groups is another security risk, most notably in South Sudan, Somalia, Mali and the Central African Republic. Travelers would be wise to travel with protection agents and in chauffeured transport if heading to these nations on business.
Asia/Pacific
Despite the violent rhetoric between North Korea and the U.S. at the start of the year, there have been positive developments on the Korean peninsula. While 2017 ended with missile tests and nuclear tests, 2018 started positively with the North participating in the Winter Olympics in South Korea. Tensions were further eased following a summit between the U.S. president and the leader of North Korea. However, the talks seemed more concerned with the historical prestige of the event rather than with agreement on concrete terms, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see more posturing between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump in the absence of significant concessions.