Justified or not, the handling of the U.S. government's surprise
ban on laptops and other large electronic devices onboard certain flights from
the Middle East and Africa was a slap in the face to the business travel
community.
A few days in, the fog is lifting on the genesis of the ban.
Reports now indicate that it was based on recent chatter from militants who plan
to hide explosive devices in computers, and those devices require manual
detonation. That, at least, is better reasoning than what the Department of
Homeland Security offered on March 21 in the form of an FAQ that created more
questions than it answered. And the severe hardship the ban imposes on business
travelers makes it hard to swallow.
Most glaringly, why limit it to certain airports when global
terrorist cells could easily depart from another airport in Europe or Asia? The
DHS cited the bombing of a 2016 flight operated by Somali carrier Daallo
Airlines that departed from Mogadishu, where airport security is virtually
nonexistent. Some employees of that airport have been implicated in the attack.
As Emirates president Tim Clark pointed out, that's vastly different from the
security in Dubai—one of the airports affected by the U.S. electronics ban—where
security is at least on par with European and American airports.
This inconsistency has given rise to theories that the U.S.
policy is based more on protectionism than security. The three major U.S.
carriers have been waging a battle against Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad.
The U.S. airlines say the Gulf carriers unfairly benefit from state subsidies,
a violation of the Gulf states' Open Skies Agreements with the U.S. All three
Gulf carriers vehemently deny the charge. When he met
with airline executives last month, President Donald Trump alluded to those
concerns but did not say anything in regard to a planned course of action.
The U.K. has announced a similar
ban, and Canada reportedly is considering the same, which legitimizes the
security reasoning being behind the U.S.'s ban. Of course, the U.K.'s ban
includes neither the United Arab Emirates nor Qatar but does include countries
that will affect British Airways flights. The U.S. ban includes the headquarters
airports of all three Gulf carriers and no airports served by any U.S. carrier,
which has raised a few eyebrows, given the protectionist bent of the Trump
administration.
Regardless of the intent, the U.S. ban could have grave
effects on the Gulf carriers should it persist. In a research note, JPMorgan
analyst Jamie Baker said long-haul business travelers going to the U.S. from
Africa, India or Southeast Asia who might have connected in the Middle East will
go through Europe instead. "For example, a business traveler … when
confronting the choice between a connection in Doha or Frankfurt could
reasonably be expected to choose Frankfurt, given the ability to sidestep the
e-ban," according to Baker. "In theory, much as how LaGuardia
commands a yield premium over JFK given [its] proximity to Manhattan, hubs that
don't impede the productivity of long-haul business travelers could logically
be expected to extract yield premiums at the expense of the Middle East."
Given the potential trade implications of reopening Open
Skies discussions with Qatar and the UAE, it's certainly not a stretch to
wonder whether this is another way to strike, much like a landlord who can't
evict a rent-controlled tenant opts to be lax in basic maintenance, hoping the
tenant will simply move out.
The U.S. government has given no indication how long this
ban could last, saying only that it "will remain in place until the threat
changes." That's cold comfort, considering the liquid ban has persevered
for more than a decade and U.S. checkpoints still require passengers to remove
their shoes more than 15 years after Richard Reid's failed bombing attempt.
If economic protectionism is not a driver, others in the corporate
travel industry fear, this ban could become the norm across the aviation industry,
which would have severe implications on business travel. Not only would
business travelers lose hours of productivity on the plane, many would be
unable to travel with laptops and tablets at all, given the risk to expensive
equipment and data should a checked bag be tampered with, lost or stolen. Some
companies already have policies expressly prohibiting employees from checking
laptops. "How long is it going to be before this ban is extended to
flights from Paris and Brussels into the U.K. and U.S.?" Association of
Corporate Travel Executives Greeley Koch asked. "No one is going to
willingly check their computers or tablets, which often house the most detailed
and proprietary corporate information, in the cargo hold of an airliner."
In the best-case scenario, this threat will be short-lived,
and the ban will lift or the government and airports will come up with a
workaround involving a closer inspection of electronic devices brought onboard.
That still does not excuse the poor communication employed in
its rollout. Royal Jordanian, for example, announced
its ban on social media before the U.S. government had made any sort of
official announcement; the carrier later retracted the announcement. Some in
the U.S. Transportation Security Administration had not been briefed about it
as the news emerged on March 20, and some Federal Air Marshals reportedly
learned about the ban from CNN reports distributed by management. Such
sloppiness is disturbing, considering the ban's potential impact on the global
business travel industry, which the Global Business Travel Association
estimates spent $1.3 trillion worldwide last year.
"Travelers
want the best security," Koch said. "But without further explanation,
these new restrictions will do nothing but breed further skepticism in
government's perception of business travel."