This year, Orlando, Fla., will be hosting the Global Business Travel Association's annual convention. As business travel slowly rebounds, expect populated cities in more "open" states like Texas and Florida to bounce back before the historically most popular business travel destinations like New York City.
First, the pandemic restrictions won't be that much different, especially in the first half of 2021. There is a new contagious Covid-19 strain in the U.S., and the World Health Organization said 2021 "could be even tougher." At the moment, it's unclear how long the vaccine guarantees immunity, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC also recommends vaccinated individuals continue to social distance, to wear masks and to stay away from crowds. Just like in 2020, states are likely to implement their own approaches to responding to Covid-19 in 2021; the Biden administration has said it does not support a national lockdown.
Second, just like in 2020, the people most likely to travel amid the pandemic will be sales representatives because their incomes often depend on building relationships with new clients. Many likely want to get back in front of clients as soon as possible because virtual conferences aren't cutting it for many of them. Meetings and conventions have already been held in less restricted states. In November, Meeting Professionals International held a 608-person conference at the Gaylord Texas Resort and Convention Center.
Third, sales representatives will travel to where their customers are. Their customers' employees are moving from locked down areas to more open areas. In 2020, New York had the second-highest percentage of outbound migration, with 67 percent being outbound (72 percent New York City's total migration was outbound), according to United Van Lines' 44th Annual National Migration Study. Bloomberg, in its own analysis of United Van Lines' data, reported nearly half of New Yorker relocations were to cities in Florida, Texas, California and North Carolina.
Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Apple— all Corporate Travel 100 spenders—have expanded or plan to expand their operations in Austin, Texas, as has Tesla. Even if some of them were planned before 2020, these plans are moving forward despite the pandemic, signaling confidence in the area as a place to conduct business. 2021 will look a lot like 2020, but the cities where people plan to travel for business may already be very different.